SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE — (Marketwired) — 04/17/13 — In his for 15 April, – whose views are widely sought after in the Forex industry, focuses on USD losses and economic seasonality fears, and a stronger Yen. China-s GDP unexpectedly slowed in the first quarter to a 7.7% YoY growth, indicating that the nation-s recovery from 4Q last year lost momentum.
Key Events to Focus On This Week
Key Events Last Week
Economic Insights
Turning point for the U.S. Dollar?
To view figure 1 (Source: Bloomberg, FXPRIMUS), please visit the following link: .
The Dollar index extended losses last week, instead of investors looking for havens,
To view figure 2 (Source: Bloomberg, FXPRIMUS), please visit the following link: .
In the post Lehman crisis, the theory “USD weakened on the QE (Quantitative Easing) program” is a ridiculous misconception!
To view figure 3 (Source: Bloomberg, FXPRIMUS), please visit the following link: .
Elements that bolster the U.S. Dollar:
To view figure 4 (Source: Bloomberg, FXPRIMUS), please visit the following link: .
In the longer-period macro currencies approach, the USD could remain attractive for traders of different asset classes before China fully liberates its financial system.
Basic criteria to become the reserve currency:
To view figure 5 (Source: Bloomberg, FXPRIMUS), please visit the following link: .
To view figure 6 (Source: Bloomberg, FXPRIMUS), please visit the following link: .
To view figure 7 (Source: Bloomberg, FXPRIMUS), please visit the following link: .
Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) growth has very little impact on the overall Chinese financial system
To view figure 8 (Source: Bloomberg, FXPRIMUS), please visit the following link: .
Capital outflows still can-t be well-managed
To view figure 9 (Source: Bloomberg, FXPRIMUS), please visit the following link: .
Bank of Japan (BoJ) – Crossing the Rubicon
The battle starts, no leeway at this juncture
In my Market Brief of the Week for 8 April 2013 and Webinar, I introduced monetary guidance and illustrated “pros and cons”. The market quickly reacted to these “cons” late last week, since more investors realized that the BoJ now stands at the edge of a mountain with no leeway.
The Group of Twenty Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (G-20) will hold its meeting this weekend. I believe the BoJ will be under the spotlight (or on the chopping board) for a second time this year. The U.S. Treasury stated they are ready to press Japan for competitive devaluation, and European governments are urging it to not become too reliant on fiscal and monetary stimulus. Does that make sense? Or is there a problem in the Japanese financial system or economy? The answer might be “yes”.
Does fiscal policy allow “whatever it takes?”
To view figure 10 (Source: Bloomberg, FXPRIMUS), please visit the following link: .
Two-year effort to change a “15-year deflation”?
To view figure 11 (Source: Bloomberg, FXPRIMUS), please visit the following link: .
The efficiency of the Japanese money base
There are no effective channels to distribute the increasing money base. The financial system and real economy will not benefit.
To view figure 12 (Source: Bloomberg, FXPRIMUS), please visit the following link: .
Once again, the chance of a collapse is present
To view figure 13 (Source: Bloomberg, FXPRIMUS), please visit the following link: .
China-s 1Q growth misses forecast
China-s 1Q GDP unexpectedly slowed in the first quarter to a 7.7% YoY growth, indicating that the nation-s recovery from 4Q last year lost momentum.
To view figure 14 (Source: Bloomberg, FXPRIMUS), please visit the following link: .
Industrial Production grew to 8.9% YoY, also missing the earlier forecast, indicating a weak manufacturing environment and uncertain external demand. Meanwhile, Retail Sales rose 20.9%.
To view figure 15 (Source: Bloomberg, FXPRIMUS), please visit the following link: .
ABOUT MARIO SANT SINGH
is the Director of Training & Education at . He has appeared as a guest expert on CNBC more than 35 times to talk about foreign exchange markets, and is a regular contributor to top investment publications and online portals. Known as a brilliant and intense communicator with a unique ability to -keep Forex simple- and a mission to help every man-in-the-street to trade profitably and responsibly in the Forex market, more than 20,000 people have attended his Forex trading programs. He is the only Forex trader in Asia invited to train Julius Baer Private Bankers – the third largest Swiss Bank, and ICBC, China-s largest commercial bank. Mario is also author of the best-selling book, .
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